The attack on Izmail brings together several of today’s most consequential risks. Ukraine’s Danube ports are not merely military logistics points; they are arteries connecting one of the world’s major grain-producing regions to countries that depend on imported food. When Russia and Ukraine strike ports and shipping, the consequences can travel rapidly through commodity prices, insurance costs and food insecurity. At the same time, the U.S.-Iran contest over the Strait of Hormuz shows how wars increasingly threaten the narrow transport corridors on which the global economy depends.

Domestic politics is also shifting beneath the established parties. Democratic-socialist and progressive candidates have demonstrated enough strength in this year’s primaries to worry centrist Democrats, even where they lose, while Republicans are betting that the word “socialism” can mobilize voters against the opposition. The contest is therefore becoming larger than individual races: it is a fight over whether economic frustration, inequality and generational change will redraw America’s political boundaries. Meanwhile, extreme heat in Europe, flooding in China and the huge Oman oil spill underline how environmental crises are piling onto geopolitical and economic ones.